Texas spent the last few years riding high on $70-plus oil, stuffing state and local budgets with billions and convincing itself the good times were basically a birthright. After COVID cratered prices, the rebound felt like divine intervention—with rigs humming, school districts flush, and West Texas swagger fully restored.
Now comes the plot twist. President Trump says he wants $50-a-barrel oil—great news if your biggest economic concern is your F-150’s fuel gauge. Less great if your entire regional economy depends on oil companies actually making money. Experts warn that prices that low would squeeze profits, stall drilling, and start thinning out payrolls across places like the Permian Basin, where “economic diversification” mostly means deciding which oilfield restaurant you’re eating at.
Economists and local officials are politely using words like “volatile” and “unpredictable,” which is Texas-speak for uh oh. At $50 a barrel, producers struggle to break even. At $40, things get downright apocalyptic—capital budgets slashed, production cut, and workers laid off, which then ripples through housing, retail, and local tax revenue. Turns out when oil slows down, everything slows down.
Industry groups, meanwhile, are doing what industry groups do: projecting confidence and talking about efficiency, innovation, and Texas’ “robust economy.” Horizontal drilling will save us, apparently. Sure, production might dip, budgets might feel a “modest pressure,” and jobs might vanish—but don’t worry, this is all just a healthy market adjustment. Totally fine. Nothing to see here.
So we’re finally getting cheap gas—right when Texas might not be able to afford it. Funny how that works, isn’t it?
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/01/20/donald-trump-oil-price-west-texas/