NOAA just dropped its fall weather outlook, and the big takeaway? Don’t pack away the shorts yet. Nearly every state is staring down a warmer-than-average September through November, with the hottest odds (60–70%) in the Southwest and New England. Basically, if you were hoping for crisp sweater weather, keep dreaming.
La Niña is expected to kick in between September and December, shifting things drier and hotter across the southern U.S. while tossing extra rain at the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. The Southwest, already choking under drought, is in for even less relief, with Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and SoCal looking especially parched. Even Hawaii isn’t spared — drier conditions for Maui and the Big Island, plus hotter-than-normal temps for most of the islands.
Last year’s El Niño baked records into the books, but this year’s cooler sibling isn’t much friendlier. 2025 might not snag the title of hottest year ever, but it’s still in the running for second or third.
So yeah, “fall” might technically arrive on the calendar, but in Lubbock and beyond, it’s shaping up to be “summer, part two.” Better hope your AC survives till November.
