Just when you thought Texas politics couldn’t get any more exhausting, the latest University of Houston Hobby School poll dropped to remind us that the May 26 Republican runoff is going to be a absolute knife fight. Attorney General Ken Paxton—a man who carries more legal baggage than a carousel at the airport—is currently leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn 48% to 45%. It turns out Cornyn’s strategy of appealing to people with college degrees who care about trivial things like “inflation” isn’t a slam dunk. Instead, Paxton is dominating voters without a college degree 55% to 38%, and he holds that exact same 17-point lead among voters of color, proving that nothing unites a base quite like yelling about the border.
Meanwhile, the leftover voters from third-place finisher Wesley Hunt are breaking for Paxton by a 19-point margin. Hunt himself is sitting on the sidelines, refusing to endorse anyone until Donald Trump tells him what his opinion is. Trump, of course, promised to back Cornyn the day after the primary but has apparently been too busy to bother. All this intra-party bickering has created the genuinely hilarious scenario where Democratic nominee James Talarico is actually leading both of them in recent general election polls. Cornyn’s camp is hyperventilating that he’s the only one who can save the party in November, while Paxton’s team insists that a national environment favoring Democrats is the perfect time to run a candidate who views federal indictments as a personality trait.
But don’t worry, the down-ballot races are equally unhinged. In the Attorney General runoff, Mayes Middleton—an oil tycoon who has lit $15 million of his own money on fire to buy Paxton’s old job—is leading Chip Roy by nine points. Roy is frantically running ads pointing out that Middleton has barely any legal experience, which is a bold strategy in a state where the legal system is treated as an optional side quest. And let’s not forget the Railroad Commission, where incumbent Jim Wright is leading Bo French by seven points. French, a conservative firebrand, has kept things classy by using his campaign to ask social media followers whether Jews or Muslims pose a bigger threat to the country, while casually proposing to deport about a third of the U.S. population.
So get ready to head to the polls on May 26, Lubbock, because whether you want the billionaire buying his way into office, the indicted guy screaming about election integrity, or the guy who wants to deport a chunk of the census, Texas democracy is truly firing on all cylinders. Who knew the apocalypse would have a runoff option?
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